and satan is my motor (hear my motor purr).

One college pick, since I don't care about Penn St.-Ohio St.:

LSU at Alabama: Both teams enter this game quite differently than they began the season. LSU stumbled out of the gate against Washington and had terrible offensive struggles against everyone they played, culminating the final, egregious goostomping against Florida. Bama meanwhile annihilated their competition, beginning with a statement (though gradually diminishing in prestige) game against Virginia Tech, the presumptive ACC favorite. Now, though, LSU is slowly beginning to find its offense again with some tweaks in playcalling (more I-formation, fewer options with Jefferson, smarter incorporation of Russell Shepard, more three-step passes) and the gradual maturation of Jordan Jefferson, who will face his greatest test against Bama's rightfully vaunted defense. Bama, on the other hand, just barely escaped a humiliating loss to Tennessee, who, though improving, are still one of the dregs of the SEC, and Macaroy is displaying decidedly non-Messianic trends for his offense.

Bama's success, as always, depends on the ability of its power run game to make life easy on McElroy. The first game where their stud running back didn't reach 100 yards, however, was against the first rush defense they played that was ranked in the top 70 nationally. LSU is 35th, and would be much higher if it weren't for the outlier at Washington. No player has benefited more from John Chavis' hiring as d-coordinator than Kelvin Sheppard, one of LSU's middle linebackers. Traditionally LSU's LBs have been either big safeties (Darry Beckwith) or designated pass rushers (Ali Highsmith), and they are much more well-rounded and disciplined as a unit with Chavis' coaching, especially Sheppard. Sheppard has proven that he can shed blocks, is a sure tackler, and flows almost as well to the ball as Bama's all-world ILB, Orlando McCain. He and his counterpart at OLB, Perry Riley, will have to have excellent days against Mark Ingram to keep Bama in check.

Meanwhile, Bama can't really afford to come out throwing like they did against Tennessee. LSU's secondary has transformed into one of the best in the country since the U-Dub fiasco (to my astonishment, I assure you), owing especially to the maturation of CB Patrick Peterson and FS Chad Jones. Both will see significant time against Bama's struggling all-star Julio Jones, and they rank among the few physical matches for Jones in the country. Should Bama's starting TE, Colin Peek, sit out this game, McElroy will have to start winning some battles all on his own, which in the past few weeks he has been incapable of doing.

Ultimately, I think that Bama's offense will continue to struggle, mainly due to the fact that LSU has depth and athleticism that Virginia Tech and Tennessee didn't have the luxury of playing with. LSU won't get worn down like Virginia Tech did, and while it doesn't have an Eric Berry, LSU's defense has more weapons across the board than Tennessee. I think the advantage has to go to LSU's defense here.

LSU's offense, however, has an appointment with the mangler that is Bama's defense. LSU's struggles running the ball appear to be improving, especially with the incorporation of more I-sets and Jefferson's improved ability to spread the field. Does this mean that LSU will be able to run against Bama? Almost certainly not. As I've stated before, the offenses that aren't consistently competent are consistently incompetent against confusing defenses like Alabama's. Should LSU be able to grind out consistent 3-5 yard gains like Tennessee did, however, that could easily be the difference in the game by keeping LSU's defense off the field.

LSU's wideouts, meanwhile, have a huge advantage against Bama's secondary. Not that Bama's secondary isn't good, but LSU's receiving corps is probably the best, top-to-bottom, in the country. Bama's diminutive corners will have to account for a ton of tall receivers with excellent hands, from the veteran Brandon LaFell to the freshman sensation Rueben Randle. LSU won't be able to run their patented bubble screens and short-outs against Bama's physical corners, but they ought to be able to win some key jump-ball opportunities. LSU's success will be completely predicated on out-freaking Bama's talent on the perimeters of the field.

The obvious key to this is a good day from Jordan Jefferson, which is certainly not a given. He has shown a bad habit of taking too many sacks despite having a good offensive line, which is a combination of being coached not to make dangerous throws and his confusion reading blitzing defenses. If Bama manages to cloak its blitzes off the edge with Arenas et al., Jefferson could be in for a long day, and Bama's risk-reward scheme will be all reward. If he continues to improve his decision-making and his budding understanding of complex defenses, however, as well as his accuracy on three-step drops, he could end up on the right side of the ledger against Bama, which so few QB's ever do. More likely, though, he'll struggle as he did against Florida, and the result will be Bama neutralizing its greatest weakness.

On a quick closing note, LSU's special teams has a statistical advantage over Bama's, despite Javier Arenas' dominance as a returner. Although this may seem like a cop-out, I truly believe that this game will hinge entirely on key turnovers, which both teams seem suspect of committing.

Prediction: I'd like to call this game 7-3, honestly, like an old-school LSU-Auburn game. Accounting for the big-play potential of the stars on each side, plus scores off turnovers, I'll inflate the score a little bit. Regardless, I'm picking LSU to win. Not as a homer pick (I picked Florida to win the last big LSU matchup, as you'll recall), I just think that LSU is hitting Bama at the right time and that if Bama hasn't made some big adjustments over the bye week, LSU is perfectly capable of pulling the upset. LSU wins, 23-20.

NFL picks:

SAN DIEGO at New York: New York's pass defense is abysmal outside of Corey Webster, and Eli Manning has been struggling lately against turnover defenses. Guess what San Diego's two greatest strengths are? San Diego wins on the road, 27-16.

Houston at INDY: Houston has a long and storied history of losing to the Colts, and I think they'll write another chapter this week. Why? Houston has recently had great offenses in terms of yards, but has always struggled with turnovers, usually from the two or three dumb passes Matt Schaub is always good for. Indy's defense, meanwhile, is designed to generate those turnovers, beginning with the pressure that their defensive line creates against Houston's sieve of an offensive line. On the other end, Peyton Manning will dominate a porous Houston secondary. This one might be closer than usual owing to some key turnovers, but the better team, Indy, remains undefeated at 30-23.

DALLAS at Philly: Philly has dominated the last couple of games, especially against the Giants. What they have yet to prove, however, is that they can truly account for the loss of Stewart Bradley at Mike LB. They pulled ahead quickly against the Giants' secondary and forced them to pass, but Dallas has the firepower on the perimeter with Miles Austin and in the backfield with their stable of stud RBs to diversify the Eagles' defensive focus. Dallas wins in a shootout, 35-30.

PITTSBURGH at Denver: Can we officially declare the Broncos back on track to mediocrity? Kyle Orton isn't a terrible quarterback, but if you can't threaten deep against Pittsburgh's secondary, you will regret it. Most of the Broncos' offensive success came from teams playing off of Brandon Marshall and letting him make plays in space, a mistake I can't imagine Dick LeBeau making. Meanwhile, Denver's smoke-and-mirrors defense got exposed by Baltimore's offense, and Joe Flacco, with his strong arm and tendency to extend plays, is really just a diet Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh wins, 24-10.