mock draft 1.0

1. St. Louis Rams:  Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

The consensus choice here is Suh, and it’s certainly true that St. Louis needs help on its d-line, especially if it wants to see some return on its previous d-line investments.  It’s also true that in a number of respects, not the least of which is experience in a pro-style offense, Jimmy Clausen is the better pick.  Bradford, however, has extraordinary accuracy and much better arm strength than his rival Colt McCoy; he’s also a huge improvement over Clausen in terms of not being an enormous prick.  The NFL’s bust rate is directly related to work ethic and leadership ability, and Bradford has both in spades.  Neither Bradford nor Clausen is going to have the immediate impact of a Matt Ryan, and the very height of their potential is Aaron Rodgers, not Peyton Manning.  Like Rodgers, Bradford would benefit immensely from sitting and learning a system (not to mention getting some offensive weapons and protection), a luxury he won’t have.

He’s the best option regardless, and while he’ll suffer through some rough early years, he has the potential to be the face of the franchise in a few years.

Other Possibilities:  Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame; Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

2. Detroit Lions:  Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Suh and Gerald McCoy, like Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis two years before them, increasingly seem like a “1 vs. 1a” in terms of potential.  Unlike those two, Suh and McCoy don’t have a devastating injury (Dorsey’s chop block) and documented troubles handling the run (Ellis) between them.  Suh would provide much-needed help on the interior of Detroit’s line, which has to be one of the league’s worst.  They could also use Berry or Okung here, but safeties never get taken in the top three and Coach Schwartz has been vocal in his support of veteran left tackle Jeff Backus.

Other Possibilities:  Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma; Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Tampa Bay’s d-line, outside of the excellent (and excellently-named) Stylez G. White, is total garbage.  They need a ton of help at receiver, o-line, and safety as well, but they’ll never see a defensive renaissance without a dominant defensive line, and McCoy is as sure a bet as any.

Other Possibilities:  Eric Berry; Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech; Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

4. Washington Redskins:  Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

There’s plenty of talk about the Skins not resigning embattled QB Jason Campbell, but he’s been too consistently good (especially considering his abysmal o-line and receivers) to let go.  Ideally, the Skins would trade down and spend the picks on a total revamp of their o-line, but they’ll probably take a long-run replacement for Chris Samuels.  Okung is an excellent pass protector and an underrated run blocker, and even though he probably won’t have the impact of a Joe Thomas or Ryan Clady, he’ll instantly become the best player on the Redskins’ line.

Other Possibilities: Trading Down, Jimmy Clausen, Eric Berry

5. Kansas City Chiefs:  Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

It’s really unlike someone from the Belichick tree to ignore his lines while they’re still works in progress (to say the least), but the Chiefs stupidly let a good safety go in Bernard Pollard and desperately need help in the defensive backfield.  Berry will make an instant impact with his versatility in coverage, and will be a huge boon to the team’s run defense.  He’s even better than Ed Reed in terms of pure coverage, and despite some late troubles last season he’s on a par with Troy Polamalu in terms of range and ability to make an open-field tackle.  The Chiefs’ defense desperately needs a brain, too, and Berry was a captain for Tennessee ever since his freshman year.

Other Possibilities:  Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama; Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

6. Seattle Seahawks:  Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

I have my doubts about Morgan, especially in terms of lateral pursuit, but the Seahawks’ defensive line is ridiculously bad.  Morgan will be an instant improvement in developing their pass rush, especially if Carroll converts the defense back to a 4-3.

Other Possibilities:  Rolando McClain (very likely if they stay in a 3-4); Bruce Campbell; Earl Thomas, S, Texas

7. Cleveland Browns: CJ Spiller, HB, Clemson

So much about the Browns was unwatchable last year, but HB Jerome Harrison showed some promise towards the end of the year.  After resetting the franchise record for rushing yards in a single game, Harrison had a bit of a power outage in the last two games.  His success showed, if but for a fleeting instant, what the Browns offense could look like with a competent run game:  that’s where Spiller comes in.  Despite accusations that he’s too small to play in the league, Spiller doesn’t have an extensive injury history, and has extraordinary speed and vision.  At worst, he serves as a Felix Jones-esque sparkplug for a terrible offense while spelling Harrison; at best, he serves as a Chris Johnson-esque horse for a terrible (but improving!) offense.

Other Possibilities:  Joe Haden, CB, Florida; Jimmy Clausen

8. Oakland Raiders:  Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

Al Davis is committed to the Jamarcus Russell experiment, and he needs to protect his investment, no matter how terrible it’s been for his franchise.  Moreover, Campbell is a freakish athlete, and Davis, no stranger to gushing over such things, will be wowed by his measurables.

Other Possibilities: Taylor Mays, SS/OLB, USC; Rolando McClain

9. Buffalo Bills: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

The Bills need oodles of help on the line, but the two best tackles are already off the board.  They’re likely moving to a 3-4 under Chan Gailey, and could use a viable nose tackle as well.  When it comes down to it, though, the Bills are going to remain mired in mediocrity without a viable QB, and Clausen, for all his faults, is that.  His junior season may have been the best in college football history, and he’s used to getting knocked around (and losing!).  The Bills will probably make a move for a QB in free agency before this, but if they don’t then Clausen’s their best option.

Other Possibilities: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers; Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee

10. Jacksonville Jaguars:  Joe Haden, CB, Florida

The Jags have an anemic pass rush, to be sure, but their front seven is actually pretty good.  For all the talk of Derrick Harvey being a bust, he’s a good run defender, and has never had a number-one DE to take the pressure off of him.  The real trouble is in the secondary, which is a total mess.  Haden has a very diverse set of skills, and can lock down in both zone and man coverage; he’ll go a long way towards shaping up a very, very bad secondary.

Other Possibilities:  Earl Thomas; Tim Tebow, QB, Florida; Trading Down

11. Denver Broncos:  Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama

The Broncos are shopping Brandon Marshall, and will need a true number one receiver to take the pressure off him.  As of right now, though, Marshall’s a Bronco, and their defense—which utterly broke down at the end of last year—needs a leader besides the aging (and insane) Brian Dawkins.  DJ Williams did not fare well in the transition to the 3-4, and Andra Davis won’t be around too much longer.  McClain is an all-world talent the likes of which the draft hasn’t seen since Pat Willis, and has tons of experience captaining a complex 3-4 defense.  McClain would be an absolute steal at this point in the draft.

Other Possibilities:  Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

12. Miami Dolphins:  Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan

Graham tore it up at the Senior Bowl, improving his draft stock tremendously in the process.  The Dolphins’ defense was solid last year, especially considering its youth in the secondary; with a viable pass rush, it will continue to flourish.  Graham is competent dropping into a short zone, and can assume Joey Porter’s role at outside rush linebacker without much trouble.  With a veteran (and very good) d-line to support him, and a still-effective Jason Taylor to command attention, Graham could be in for a very good year.

Other Possibilities:  Daryl Washington, ILB, TCU; Dez Bryant

13. San Francisco 49ers:  Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

The 49ers are a bona fide safety away from being a dominant defense, but their biggest position of weakness is right tackle.  Bulaga had a down junior year because of injury, but he totally shut down Derrick Morgan, the best end in the draft, in the Orange Bowl.  He’s a good pass blocker and a total monster in the run game, and would vastly improve an ailing line; he could feasibly start at left tackle, but his future is almost certainly on the right side of the line, opening creases for the great Frank Gore.

Other Possibilities: Anthony Davis; Earl Thomas; Damian Williams, WR, USC

14. Seattle Seahawks:  Earl Thomas, S, Texas

Thomas is mediocre at best in the run game, but he’s a tremendous cover man, which is exactly what the Seahawks need at the moment.  The transition from Brian Russell, the worst safety in the league in 2008, to Jordan Babineaux last year didn’t improve a thing; Thomas could bolster a sieve of a secondary, having an effect not unlike Jairus Byrd.

Other Possibilities:  Taylor Mays; Anthony Davis

15. New York Giants:  Brian Price, DT, UCLA

This was one of the hardest decisions for me to make; the Giants have equally big holes at inside linebacker and throughout the secondary.  In a defense that thrives on creating pressure, the Giants created none, and their vaunted defensive line largely crumbled.  Price is outstanding at creating penetration, and would create the interior pass rush that the Giants have been lacking since their Super Bowl run.

Other Possibilities: Donovan Warren, CB, Michigan; Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Mizzou; Taylor Mays

16. Tennessee Titans:  Everson Griffen, DE, USC

The Titans took a big step back in 2009, and I expect them to do so again in 2010.  They’re likely to lose a number of aging stars in free agency, not the least of whom is Kevin Mawae, arguably the best center of the last decade.  Moreover, they’re losing Kyle Vanden Bosch, who, though slipping, was still one of the bright spots on an otherwise quite bad defensive line.  The Titans’ defense will greatly improve when it starts generating the same sort of pressure it did when it had Haynesworth, and Everson Griffen, a power rusher with enormous upside, could do just that next to Tony Brown.

Other Possibilities:  Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho; Taylor Mays; Donovan Warren

17. San Francisco 49ers:  Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

For the second year in a row, the 49ers have the best receiver in the draft fall to them.  They’ve got plenty of other needs, sure, and will certainly be tempted by the illusory talents of Taylor Mays.  Along with the addition of Bulaga (and a comprehensive run game), Bryant will open the field for Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, and despite his limited route tree will greatly expand the 49ers’ burgeoning spread offense.

Other Possibilities:  Taylor Mays, Donovan Warren

18. Pittsburgh Steelers:  Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

The Steelers’ line problems are somewhat exaggerated by Roethlisberger’s release, which is somewhere between plate tectonics and icebergs in swiftness.  The reality, though, is that Max Starks has to go if the Steelers expect to win another Super Bowl anytime soon.  Davis isn’t a sure thing as his replacement, and has a reputation as a head case, but Starks simply isn’t a franchise left tackle, and Davis may be.

Other Possibilities:  Dan Williams; Terrence Cody, NT, Alabama

19. Atlanta Falcons:  Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

The Falcons have plenty of other problems, not the least of which is running back.  They need to generate a better pass rush with their line if they want to keep running a Tampa-2, however, and though John Abraham is outstanding, he won’t be around forever.  Pierre-Paul has been skyrocketing up draft charts for weeks now, and while I don’t buy the hype, necessarily, he’s been effective in a similar system and will complement Abraham nicely.

Other Possibilities:  Jonathan Dwyer, HB, Georgia Tech; Ricky Sapp, DE, Clemson; Sean Weatherspoon

20. Houston Texans: Donovan Warren, CB, Michigan

Although Dunta Robinson used to seem like a good-to-great zone corner, injuries have slowed him tremendously and he’ll probably leave the team in free agency.  Warren is the best corner available, and though Boise State’s Kyle Wilson may be better in a zone, Warren has a better all-around game and could provide a much-needed antidote for Houston’s pass defense woes.

Other Possibilities: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State; Nate Allen, FS, South Florida; Ricky Sapp

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jared Odrick, DT/DE, Penn State

I was shocked, when looking over the Bengals’ defense, at how roundly bad their defensive line is for such a good defense.  Without Antwan Odom, they really struggled to rush the passer and keep offensive linemen off their linebackers.  Penn State’s Jared Odrick has had some minor legal troubles, but he dominated LSU’s offensive line in the Capital One Bowl and is versatile enough to help several aspects of Cincy’s line.

Other Possibilities: Damian Williams; Taylor Mays

22. New England Patriots:  Jahvid Best, RB, California

The Laurence Maroney experiment has long been a failure, and the Patriots have gotten by for years on the excellence of their offensive line masking the deficiencies of those running behind it.  They don’t need a number one back as much as they need a home-run threat from their run game, one much aided by the spread offense the team uses.  Although it seems like a reach, Best would be absolute dynamite for the Patriots’ offense, which is quickly becoming too one-dimensional.

Other Possibilities:  Kyle Wilson; Jonathan Dwyer; Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU

23. Green Bay Packers:  Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

The Packers’ defense, rightly lauded in the earlier parts of last year, promptly rolled over and died when it faced two wide-open offenses in Pittsburgh and, memorably, Arizona.  The secondary’s lack of depth was exposed, and Al Harris won’t be around much longer.  Kyle Wilson is extremely promising, and learning the ropes from one of the best corner tandems of the decade will be enlightening.

Other Possibilities:  Dan Williams; Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

24. Philadelphia Eagles:  Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

I considered Taylor Mays for this pick, knowing how the Eagles prize speed and need more run support from their secondary.  They also need someone to take the pressure off of the spectacular Trent Cole, however, to generate some pass rush so that the team’s aging secondary can return to form.  Dunlap has huge question marks, but huge potential as well.

Other Possibilities:  Taylor Mays, Sean Weatherspoon

25. Baltimore Ravens:  Damian Williams, WR, USC

The Ravens have nothing to offer in their receiving corps, and if Derrick Mason finally hangs up his cleats, they’ll have less than nothing.  Damian Williams is the most polished receiver in the draft, and would make an instant impact with his route running, strength, and ability to read defenses.  He’s a lot like Mason, actually, and he’s a willing enough blocker to start on the Ravens’ offense from day one.

Other Possibilities:  Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU; Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois; Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

26. Arizona Cardinals:  Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas

I think that the Cardinals, more than any other playoff team, are going to fall, and hard.  Between losing Kurt Warner and possibly Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle, the Buzzsaw is losing a lot of pieces from its smoke-and-mirrors success story.  If Dansby leaves, the Cards are going to need a linebacker with his versatility and ability to rush the passer, and Kindle fits the bill.  He’s more of an outside linebacker than defensive end, and his ability to cover and deal with the run will be critical to the Cards’ success.

Other Possibilities:  Charles Brown, OT, USC; Sean Weatherspoon

27. Dallas Cowboys:  Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame

The Cowboys have very few weaknesses, but receiver, amazingly, is one of them.  Outside of Miles Austin, the Cowboys have little to offer, and Golden Tate is the best receiver available.  Arrelious Benn has more upside, certainly, but Tate, like Austin, is an extraordinary route runner and vertical threat.  Unlike Benn, he’ll also willingly go over the middle.  His blocking sucks, but he’ll have great success across from Miles Austin.

Other Possibilities:  Arrelious Benn; Daryl Washington

28. San Diego Chargers: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

Jamal Williams is on the verge of retirement, and nothing hurt the Chargers last year quite like losing their mammoth nose tackle.  Williams is the best nose tackle prospect, and while outside linebacker, to my endless delight, is also a huge need for the Chargers, they’ve got to shore up the middle of the defense.

Other Possibilities:  Jerry Hughes; Jonathan Dwyer

29. New York Jets:  Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU

The Jets don’t have a lot of needs, but rush linebacker could certainly use an upgrade.  Hughes is an extraordinary player, and he’s got a mean streak and motor (to use some very original language) that Rex Ryan will appreciate.  Hughes may be the surest bet amongst the stand-up pass rushers, and I trust that Ryan will use his versatility to its maximum potential.

Other Possibilities:  Lamarr Houston, DE/DT, Texas

30. Minnesota Vikings:  Mike Iupati

Missed in all the Pro Bowl selections was the fact that the Vikes’ line was really pretty bad last year; they missed center Matt Birk far more than expected.  Steve Hutchinson is looking pretty much toast, and he’s not getting a lot of help from Bryant McKinnie to his left.  The Vikings could use some help in the secondary, too, but their greatest long-term asset is Adrian Peterson, and he needs all the help he can get.  Mike Iupati destroyed Senior Bowl practices but disappointed in the actual game; regardless, he’s got an extremely bright pro future, and will be an instant boon in the run game.

Other possibilities: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma; Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Florida

31. Indianapolis Colts:  Javier Arenas, CB, Alabama

The Colts lost the Super Bowl because of special teams and coaching, and have a great opportunity to improve the former by picking up Arenas.  The best punt returner in college football history, Arenas made a huge impact despite sub-par blocking from Alabama’s special teams (something he’ll see plenty of with the Colts).  The Colts also have had considerable problems with their nickel corner position, and Arenas could be an excellent nickel corner in the Colts’ zone scheme, even an eventual starter.

Other Possibilities:  Maurkice Pouncey; Sean Weatherspoon

32. New Orleans Saints: Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri

The Saints have weaknesses at every level of the defense, from a lackluster defensive line to a lack of depth in the secondary.  The real problem, though, is in the outside linebackers: Scott Shanle may be the worst OLB in the league, and though Scott Fujita’s blitzing played a big role in the Saints’ championship, its success was an anomaly.  Sean Weatherspoon is the best coverage linebacker in the draft, as well as an extraordinarily driven leader who will gel nicely with Jon Vilma.  He adds speed and blitzing ability to New Orleans’ perimeter, which in turn will allow much more creativity from Gregg Williams when designing coverage schemes.

Other Possibilities:  Ricky Sapp; Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State