Wednesday, September 8, 2010

i'm not lost, but i don't know where i am.

(I realize that, after a month-long absence, I should probably be bringing a little more heat than a college football recap.  That's not the case, but then again Welsh corgis.)


LSU's victory* over North Carolina was, shall we say, underwhelming.  As with last year, the most obviously frustrating issue was offensive coaching.  Gary Crowton, as Paul Crewe at ATVS noted, can design some very pretty plays.  Unfortunately, his implementation in-game is lacking both strategically and tactically, and I don't know how satisfied I am (to say nothing of the perpetually-scowling Jordan Jefferson) with the "Don't make the same mistakes as 2008" excuse. 


Specific complaints:

--Crowton's playcalling went into a shell in the second half, and playing Tressellball (the Prevent Offense) with an undersized offensive line is a recipe for disaster.  I obviously don't blame Crowton for the fumbles that resulted from his/Miles' power running strategy, but I question the decision to run isos and speed options against hyped-up future NFL outside linebackers who would like nothing more than to a) strip the ball and do obscene things with it and b) leave our running backs outlined in chalk.

--Despite having a trio of speedy, versatile receivers (all of whom, it should be noted, appear to be capable blockers on the perimeter), we didn't balance our power plays with many sweeps.  Shep's long touchdown run came on a sweep, but Crowton didn't utilize the jet sweep in pre-snap motion to confuse UNC's green defense afterward, let alone run any more actual sweeps.  In fact, he very rarely took advantage of UNC's inexperience; power runs only set up the most obvious play actions, and using Terrence Toliver as a drag-and-slant specialist instead of a deep threat seriously limited the offense.

--Stevan Ridley, whose main qualification for starting at running back appears to be the fact that he looks like one in Les Miles' brain, isn't a bad player.  When you consider the fact that he's a decent enough receiver and blocker, I'd say he's above average.  What he isn't, though, is a workhorse.  It would be silly of me to point to Richard Murphy (underwhelming in his return) or Mike Ford (untested) as viable replacements, but this seems like a much more sensible year to platoon than last year.

I've come to expect at least a little offensive ineptitude from LSU, though; what was really disappointing was the abundance of defensive errors from Chavis and the players.  I don't blame Chavis for the overall underwhelming defensive performance, which can be explained by two busted coverages and young players unready to put a team away (or consistently make tackles, apparently).  Blitzing Patrick Peterson (on a night when he was struggling with cramps) and stubbornly sticking with quarters coverage over the top, though, really bothered me.  I think Chavis' defense will eventually work once the players are more seasoned, but it was obvious that guys like Mo Claiborne and Brandon Taylor were shaken up, and Chavis didn't adjust until they'd been repeatedly burned.

All that said, I thought there were plenty of positives to take away from the game.  Peterson annihilated UNC's special teams, and remained Patrick Peterson on defense; Drake Nevis clearly confused TJ Yates and the interior of UNC's o-line for delicious babies, and his penetration at the point of attack will be critical for the D's success against the run this season; Tyrann Mathieu played extremely well in his first game; Kelvin Sheppard, despite missing a few tackles and occasionally being a step off in coverage, generally bailed out (and organized) the rest of the defense.  On offense, Jordan Jefferson played admirably and dealt with pressure far better than last year; Ramgod and Shep are total badasses when Gary Crowton deigns to allow it; and the left side of the offensive line was gorgeous.

I still think LSU can compete this year, assuming that the black marks attached to this game (particularly on defense, e.g. tackling) are rooted more in jitters than in real deficiencies.  What probably won't improve, however, is offensive coaching, and that fact alone could keep us from winning the conference even with an elite defense.

Elsewhere in football:

--God almighty, the backlash against Boise St. aggravates me.  I understand that they don't play in the SEC, but it's not their fault that they're still in the WAC.  They schedule strong out-of-conference opponents, and proved against TCU and Virginia Tech that they can beat good teams in conventional fashionTheir offense is immaculate, and it's a blast to watch Kellen Moore orchestrate it; the defense has gotten a lot less interesting with the departure of Kyle Wilson, but it still gets the job done.  If Boise ends up in the national championship game, I won't complain, largely because I think the SEC will be represented regardless.

--My tolerance for Boise has a lot more to do with my status as an SEC supremacist than it does with any Phil Steele-esque objectivity; I think that college football is, like ancient Persia, a democracy of one, and that it'll remain that way until the SEC is dramatically unseated.  A good example of a "Big 6" conference underperforming:  the Big 12.  The mighty Utah St. Aggies kept it hilariously close with Oklahoma, Kansas lost to North Dakota State, and Texas, particularly the running game, struggled against Rice.  I'm not equating the Big 12 with the WAC by any means, but generally speaking the Big 6 conferences are either top-heavy aristocracies or league-wide mediocrity.  Boise and the WAC may take it farther than some, but it's no more ridiculous for Boise to be considered for the Mythical National Championship than, say, West Virginia.

--I'll postpone jumping on the Michigan bandwagon until their defense proves something against a non-shambolic offense.  Michigan could still be a good team -- and for the sake of the college football landscape, I hope they are -- but Michigan fans should know better than to get too excited this early in the season.  See also:  Notre Dame, Auburn.

--I know Florida won't be as ridiculously discombobulated as they were against Miami of Ohio when they start playing SEC competition.  I also know that they'll still have Steve Addazio calling their plays, and what Gary Crowton can do to the West Coast offense, Addazio can easily do to the Meyer-Mullen spread option.

--When I saw the score (and the fact that the Florida offense generated under 20 yards in the first half against the vaunted Miami of Ohio defense), I couldn't help but watch the rest of the game while alternating between schadenfreude and unease for an SEC ally.  You know who didn't inspire that same ambiguity in me?  I couldn't love it more, Rebs.

Some predictions for next week's orgy of big games:

Florida St. at Oklahoma:  I'm not putting a lot of stock into Florida State's trouncing of Samford, because God invented the first week of the college football season for good, old fashioned trouncings.  I'm more concerned by Landry Jones' struggles against Utah State, especially considering that his M.O. last season was to light up bad teams and go into a shell against the better defenses.  I'm not predicting a great defensive showing from Florida State, but Jimbo Fisher's offense should be more than able to torch Oklahoma's young corners and command the game.  Even with more heroics from DeMarco Murray, Florida State wins, 35-24.

Penn St. at Alabama:  It's impossible to gauge these teams from their Week 1 blowouts, but even with a green secondary and Dareus and Ingram out, my money's on Bama against a freshman QB.  Evan Royster is a good back, but Alabama's linebacking corps is spectacular.  Meanwhile, I think Penn State's replacing too much talent on their defense to withstand a now-veteran Alabama offense.  Playing at home against an overmatched team, Bama cruises, 31-13.

Miami at Ohio St.:  We're being treated to arguably the biggest game of the season on Saturday afternoon, and I hope everyone tunes in.  Both units have elite talent on either side of the ball, but ultimately I like how Miami matches up with the Buckeyes on defense:  a great speed rusher, Olivier Vernon, against an unsettled left tackle situation; a monstrous run blocker, JB Shugarts, against an actual monster, Allen Bailey; and one of the best, most aggressive secondaries in the nation against a tentative, ball-control passing game.  The most intriguing matchup has to be weakside backer Sean Spence, a tremendously instinctive and talented player, possibly spying Terrelle Pryor and limiting his mobility.  I don't think Miami's offense, particularly its run game, is going to light up Ohio State's stacked defense, but Jacory Harris and co. should put up enough points to upset the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe.  Miami wins 24-20; Dade County goes ham.

*Something like that.

1 comment:

  1. Oh Walter, picking against the Bucks again...... Oh well, here's my thinking

    I am a big believer in the O-Line. Back when we played the U in 2003, we had the best offensive line I've seen on an OSU team (until now). While Clarett was a great RB, the line took the run game to a new level.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-UvO6tS0II
    Clarett's highlight reel=O-Line highlight reel

    Between now and then, talent on the line waxed and waned, but now, I'm starting to see it resemble the vaunted 2003 line. Granted, Saine and the other RBs are not as talented as Clarett, but I think that it will give Pryor plenty of time to throw and the experience of the players at RB will begin to show itself.

    Miami's O-Line has only 39 starts among them, while OSU's line has over double that number at 82. That's a huge disparity. In a matchup where Harris and Pryor are looking for a game that proves their leadership abilities and defenses are looking to make their marks as dominant units, the experienced O-line should help the more versatile Pryor.

    I can see one of two things happening.

    1. An offensively humdrum game where both offensive squads are dominated by their defensive counterparts (the theory which you espouse). This would happen if OSU comes out and plays like garbage, which is a real possibility.

    2. The emergence of Terrelle Pryor as a game changer (via the offensive line disparity between the two teams). In this scenario, I see Jacory Harris being harassed by a veteran defense. This hearkens back to the first few plays of the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, when the Ohio State D-Line blew through the Miami line. In the end, Ken Dorsey was hurried the entire game. He was sacked more times in that game than he had been sacked the entire season (4 times I think).

    (first minute and a half)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFcaZNByp4U&feature=related

    So while I can't blame you for picking against OSU, seeing that on the whole the big game has not been so kind to the Buckeyes over the past few years, I think that there are more factors that support the Buckeyes, and in the end, I'm still a firm believer that it all comes down to the O-Line.

    Patrick

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