florabamageddon 2: the quickening.

For the second year in a row, the biggest game of the year is the SEC Championship, and for the second year in a row it's between Florida and Alabama. Last year, the Gators managed to win despite the loss of All-Everything hybrid wideout Percy Harvin to glass bone syndrome; this year, they attempt the same despite the loss of defensive end Carlos Dunlap to serious brain cramps (a DUI a week before the biggest game of the season).

Last year, the story was very much Nick Saban's defense versus Urban Meyer's offense. With the losses of Harvin and offensive coordinator Dan Mullen, however, the Fightin' Tebows have suffered a precipitous decline on offense, the result of deficiencies in pass protection and playcalling diversity (divey dive dive TEBOW SMASH Aaron Hernandez post route divey dive dive kooky option). Florida's defense, however, is a mangler of untold proportions. Saban's defense is certainly nasty and executes better than anyone else in the country, but Charlie Strong's is undoubtedly the more creative, more explosive, and dirtier of the two. If you buy into this game as a duel between Mark Ingram and Tim Tebow, I think you'll be gravely disappointed.

The biggest weakness for both offenses is pass protection. Tebow holds the ball awfully long and isn't asked to make many calls at the line, but that doesn't excuse the complete inability of his line to diagnose and prepare against even simple blitzes or the inability of his receivers to get a quick release. Bama's offensive line, meanwhile, starts two reprehensibly bad tackles in James Carpenter and Drew Davis, who are susceptible not only to getting fooled, but also to simply getting beat man-to-man on pass plays.

Both defenses can capitalize on this weakness. Bama's M.O. is traditionally to play one safety deep and one safety in the middle on expected running downs, and to aggressively zone blitz out of a three-deep zone on passing downs. In this game, however, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Saban blitzing with only one deep safety and putting his best corner, Kareem Jackson, on Aaron Hernandez. Mississippi State had considerable success against Florida (as did Ole Miss the year before) by playing an extraordinarily aggressive Cover-0 (pure man coverage and blitzes) against Tebow. Bama LB Rolando McClain is one of the few matches for Tebow in terms of shutting down his run game, and if the rest of Bama's linebackers are prepared for the varieties of Tebow's options, it could be extraordinarily difficult for the Gators to move the ball.

Florida's defense, even without Dunlap, will still get pressure on Bama's offense. Auburn gave teams the recipe for shutting down Mark Ingram--run blitzing to his side and playing out of your skin--and Florida has the skill in the secondary to cover Bama's excellent receivers man-to-man as long as they need to. McElroy misses Jones, Hanks and Maze when they're open and he's not pressured--what do you expect him to do once he's battered and confused and they're tightly covered? Moreover, Florida's defense can and will capitalize on errant throws from the less-than-accurate Bama QB, and Charlie Strong could get very nasty if he doesn't feel he has to respect the run. The only way I've seen Florida's defense beaten over the past year and a half is assignment breakdowns, created mainly through successful play-action fakes; therefore it's imperative that Mark Ingram and Treeent Richardson get touches early and often, preferably by running the crap out of the ball.

I think, like most people, that we're in for a defensive struggle. Though Bama is prolific at forcing turnovers, they don't turn them into points as effectively as Florida does, and I think that will be the difference in this game. Barring a transcendent game from Tebow or Ingram (certainly not beyond the realm of possibility for those talents), we're in for a real slog of a game. Offensive points will be extraordinarily hard to come by, and whoever ends up with the most spare change will end up in the mythical national championship.

My prediction: Florida's secondary and Brandon Spikes will be the difference, scoring a critical defensive touchdown to seal the game for the Gators. 17-10, Florida. Don't worry, Bama fans; even if your team loses, I trust in your ability to live in the past.