i'm not lost, but i don't know where i am.

(I realize that, after a month-long absence, I should probably be bringing a little more heat than a college football recap.  That's not the case, but then again Welsh corgis.)

LSU's victory* over North Carolina was, shall we say, underwhelming.  As with last year, the most obviously frustrating issue was offensive coaching.  Gary Crowton, as Paul Crewe at ATVS noted, can design some very pretty plays.  Unfortunately, his implementation in-game is lacking both strategically and tactically, and I don't know how satisfied I am (to say nothing of the perpetually-scowling Jordan Jefferson) with the "Don't make the same mistakes as 2008" excuse. 

but to take on the world at all angles requires a strength i can't use.

--After a week or so of lackluster home stretch, the NBA Playoffs are finally here (beginning tomorrow night, I believe).  There are some really great series coming up, especially in the West.  Literally every one of the West's matchups has a compelling subplot:

• LA vs. Oklahoma City has Kobe vs. Durant, the past versus the future; the Lakers have been on a real slide, and the Thunder always play up against them;
• Denver vs. Utah has a great point guard matchup in Chauncey and Deron, and potentially great coaching; 
• Phoenix vs. Portland would've been better with Brandon Roy healthy, but Nate McMillan is the legitimate Coach of the Year because of how he's handled injuries, so I wouldn't count the Blazers out;
• and Dallas vs. San Antonio has two of the most veteran squads in the NBA, each of whom finished strong, and who are in position to make one last run at the Finals.

The East is, as you might expect, way less intriguing, but Boston v. Miami, Atlanta v. Milwaukee (even sans Bogut, which was a really tragic injury), and Orlando v. Charlotte should all have some throwback ugliness in their defense, just nasty.  If Orlando were to run a gauntlet of Charlotte, Boston, and Cleveland, they'd have nothing to fear from the West's defenses.  Finally, SBNation had a series of reasons to adopt each team, some of which (especially for the Lakers, Spurs, and Mavs) were very compelling, at least to non-fans.  I, for one, will be pulling for the Thunder, because I like Durant, because they'll be playing the Lakers, and because they're just so damned fun to watch.

thank you for taking my hands, young liars.

A requiem for a season:

florabamageddon 2: the quickening.

For the second year in a row, the biggest game of the year is the SEC Championship, and for the second year in a row it's between Florida and Alabama. Last year, the Gators managed to win despite the loss of All-Everything hybrid wideout Percy Harvin to glass bone syndrome; this year, they attempt the same despite the loss of defensive end Carlos Dunlap to serious brain cramps (a DUI a week before the biggest game of the season).

Last year, the story was very much Nick Saban's defense versus Urban Meyer's offense. With the losses of Harvin and offensive coordinator Dan Mullen, however, the Fightin' Tebows have suffered a precipitous decline on offense, the result of deficiencies in pass protection and playcalling diversity (divey dive dive TEBOW SMASH Aaron Hernandez post route divey dive dive kooky option). Florida's defense, however, is a mangler of untold proportions. Saban's defense is certainly nasty and executes better than anyone else in the country, but Charlie Strong's is undoubtedly the more creative, more explosive, and dirtier of the two. If you buy into this game as a duel between Mark Ingram and Tim Tebow, I think you'll be gravely disappointed.

what'll i do when i don't have you, when i finally get what i deserve?

--Sorry for the layoff. Blame it on my research paper (and the rain).

--A few very brief sports notes:

• Les Miles lost me in a complete and abject way on Saturday. The worst display of in-game coaching I have ever, ever witnessed. Gary Crowton, who I was reluctant to turn on earlier in the season, is clearly hurting this team. I could write more about this, and probably will should we lose to Arkansas (something that can't be terribly unlikely after a loss like that).
• In other news, Charlie Weis is toast, and UConn gets a tip of the cap from sentimental old me for it.
  
• Is there any way that the NFC Championship won't be Saints-Vikings or that the AFC Championship won't be Colts-Pats? Belichick was right to go for it on 4th and 2, by the way, but why not run there?
  
• A mock draft will be coming soon.
  
• The Celtics look worn out, plain and simple. I don't know if it makes me sadder to see K.G. losing a step or Glenn Dorsey struggling in Kansas City.
• The Hornets, meanwhile, knocked off the team with the best record with the West, the team with the best record in the East, and nearly the Heat on the road last night, despite having the league MVP sitting on the bench in (admittedly fresh) street clothes.
• Also, boo Lakers. Boo forever.
  

--I caught up on The Office and Community recently. "Murder" is in contention with "Product Recall" for the funniest Office episode I've ever seen. Meanwhile Community is getting better ("Intro to Statistics" was excellent) and that Alison Brie is quite the minx.

--As you may know, there were at least five good movies this year, and they're starting to trickle into the dollar theater. You can expect reviews for movies like The Informant, Inglourious Basterds, and Tyler Perry: I Can Do Bad All by Myself here very soon.

--Which German song is your favorite?

--Bon Iver, Bonnie "Prince" Billy, and the Rural Alberta Advantage have been in heavy rotation for me lately, and they're throwing some kinks into my presumed Top 10.

--It's real to me, damn it!

found eighteen reasons i can't pick up on the phone.

--Pretty close call on LSU, I'd say; I was there at the game, and I got my Psyduck on way later than I expected. Bama's defense didn't seem to have much of an answer for Jordan Jefferson's mobility, but Jordan Jefferson's ankles did, which, along with Patrick Peterson's cramps, killed the Tigers in that game. It was as much a loss to Gamblor, the fickle god of football fortune, as anything. As a rational fan I have to remind myself that, considering how low my hopes were for LSU's season after the Florida game, it'd be a huge win for stability to finish 11-2 (though with Arkansas and Ole Miss [giggity!] still on the schedule, no guarantees).

--Meanwhile, I'll be pulling for Bama from here on out. They played a very clean game against LSU despite the injuries, and I've got nothing but respect for their star players, especially Rolando McClain. Can't say the same for Florida or Texas.

--I swept the NFL picks, nearly going perfect on the Steelers-Broncos game. San Diego's passing attack shot the Giants' secondary dead when it mattered most, and Dallas won a (admitted more lo-fi than expected) game against Philly. The Colts did end up winning thanks to some dumb Schaub throws, and to those who say that the Texans got cheated on the questionable Ryan Moats fumble, two words: y'all jealous.

--Meanwhile, here's an update: the Patriots aren't for real. They're going to come back to earth as soon as they play the Colts (not pumped up for that game no not at all).

--YOU'RE WELCOME! DOUBLE YOU'RE WELCOME!

--Finally, a win for hustle and grit. Somewhere up there, Greg Paulus is smiling.

--Plus, a real dunk!

and satan is my motor (hear my motor purr).

One college pick, since I don't care about Penn St.-Ohio St.:

i ain't passed the bar, but i know a little bit.

Before my predictions, I'd like to say a couple of things.

• First, I'd like to apologize for the long layoff. I realize that consistency is extremely important to keeping a blog running, and so I'll try to be that. Yeah.
  
• Second, there were a ton of html issues with that last post, so that I couldn't tag it or change the title, date, or font. Not sure why.
• Third, you're welcome.
  

Now, without further ado, the picks:

life outside the diamond is a wrench.

A few things:

--A quick football roundup:

• I was just about on the money with my predictions (5-1), with a few notable flaws in reasoning (dead wrong about the Falcons, and turnovers, not the running game, killed Auburn in their game against Arkansas).
• Bama's got to be the favorite now, if they weren't already. Anyone else catch that headsnapper Macaroy caught from the Ole Miss linebacker? One of the best hits of the year.
  
• Florida clearly has a great defense, but Steve Addazio's offense has some serious issues, namely the failure to incorporate Aaron Hernandez into the game.
• LSU is who I thought they were, a roundly unspectacular team playing far too conservatively to upset anyone. We don't threaten deep, we don't threaten over the middle, we can't run consistently, and we get a ton of penalties. I'd still keep Crowton, but we need a damn quarterback (whither art thou, Perrilloux?).
• I wouldn't take Virginia Tech's latest round of beatings too seriously; they rock bad teams (ACC ball all day baby) but nearly lost to Nebraska and, if you'll recall, got shadrached by Bama.
• Pretty wary of Texas, too. McCoy's throwing a ton of picks against not-good teams; that offense is missing Quan Cosby almost as much as Ole Miss is missing Mike Wallace. If Oklahoma wins the Shootout, the Big 12's out of the MNC hunt for good, barring some real upsets in God's Conference.
  

--Speaking of Oklahoma, say hello to Ray-Ray.

--I watched the "Niagara" episode of The Office for the first time yesterday, and I'm really wowed by how the show can always up the weirdness (Dwight's whispery mixtape: "Oh, that I could trade places with you"), awkwardness (the post-cuteness portion of Jim's speech), or general hilarity ("I always look forward to smoking my afternoon cigars," "I'm not gay, I'm Kevin," the three-wolf shirt, and "I wouldn't care to live if I thought that") even after the central conceit has been thrown out the window. Pretty nice return to form overall, with the exception of the youtube meme wedding thing, which was just kind of lame.

--Also caught up on Fringe. Pleasepleaseplease stay this weird.

--This is the funniest thing I've seen from SNL in a long while, with the exception of the things I see on 30 Rock:



--No guarantees for a post tomorrow. I'm crazy tired after today's workload (presentation, extended essay, exam), and I'll be savoring Fall Break once it hits tomorrow afternoon.

I think you're more than a terrified witness, behind the arbitrary line.

Football prediction party, beginning now:

ALABAMA at Ole Miss: Bama is, whether I like it or not, probably playing the soundest football in the country right now, and clearly has the best resume (garnered, however, on favorable matchups). Ole Miss' ballsy defense (an old-school man-blitz scheme) should keep Bama's inside power runs to a minimum and force McElroy to win a few battles himself. The problem is, he's shown himself to be capable of doing just that to teams who have played him that way. As for Ole Miss' offense, flip a coin. It's highly unlikely that Snead suddenly recovers his talents against Bama's D, but he's the sort of guy who either throws 4 picks or 4 tds in a game (gunslinger!), so don't count him out yet. Houston Nutt is also always good for an upset for every two staggering losses to underdogs.

My prediction: Luck is just fine, but a Process is better; Bama finally tears the heart out of Ole Miss' season, 35-10.

Auburn at ARKANSAS: The Vampire Jetgate Bowl is a lot harder for me to predict. Auburn's defense really is woefully bad, and will catch up to them sometime, I just don't know if that sometime is today. Arkansas' defense is also really bad, but I think that if their offense can stay on the field and chew up clock (Petrino's M.O. against spread offenses) it may not matter. Michael Smith is also the type of back (elusive, prone to breaking arm-tackles and beating safeties) who can cause a lot of problems for Auburn, assuming (and this is a fair assumption) that Mallett is having a good day throwing.

My prediction: If Auburn can run consistently, they'll win today, because it takes pressure off of Todd and also extends drives, helping their defense out. I think Arkansas' defense will take the run away from Auburn, though, and that Auburn's lack of a deep threat at wideout and a defense will finally cost them. Arkansas takes it, in a 31-28 type game.

FLORIDA at LSU: This matchup last year was one of the most miserable experiences of my relatively short career as a college football fan. LSU was on the verge of forcing a three-and-out from the best team in the country on its first drive, when Curtis Taylor, our free safety, batted the ball up (and seemingly away)...into Percy Harvin's waiting hands, who ran it in for a 70-yard touchdown. It set the tone for the rest of the game, which was a shadraching of epic proportions.

I think this year will be a distinctively different (but no less agonizing) type of loss. LSU's defense is improved to say the least, and has individual stars (particularly in the secondary) to rival Florida's. Our pass rush is fairly pedestrian, but our secondary is good enough to make it irrelevant. For the first time since I've been watching LSU, our linebackers are playing disciplined ball, so a lot of the option looks Florida uses will probably get shut down (look for Kelvin Sheppard and Perry Riley, LSU's outside guys, to both have big games on the perimeter).

This is all a moot point, however, if LSU can't score, and you better believe that they won't score against Florida's defense. You can basically only beat them by messing with their safeties on a good play-action fake, and since the line won't be able to run and since Jordan Jefferson is allergic to throwing the deep ball, we won't be doing much of that. There's nothing in the past 4 games for either team to suggest that LSU will be able to run (thanks Brandon Spikes) or throw its patented short-outs to its receivers (thanks Janoris Jenkins and Joe Haden), and with Jefferson at the helm that really is our offense. I love our receivers, but they can only make so many plays on their own.

My prediction: Death by a thousand cuts for LSU, losing about 20-10 to the gators.

I'd talk about Iowa-Michigan (hint: Pat Angerer gets Angererier) or Oregon-UCLA, but most of the games today pick themselves.

A smattering of NFL predictions:

Atlanta at SAN FRANCISCO: Atlanta has shown very little of last year's relationship between Matt Ryan and Roddy White, and if it's still ineffective this game (pleasepleaseplease) then Atlanta will lose. Patrick Willis will have another monster game, and could feasibly take both Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner out of the game covering the middle.

My prediction: San Fran, in a 17-7 patented Shaun Hill win.

INDY at Tennessee: How does 0-5 sound, bitches? Manning and the Indy defensive line are on a crazy-hot streak and the Titans have no offense (sorry Chris Johnson) and no secondary, so I think this game calls itself. In all likelihood, unless the Titans suddenly become last year's Titans, it won't even be close.

My prediction: Indy, 28-10.

New England at DENVER: Tom Brady has regressed to his old, pre-2007 self, which is the real Tom Brady (25 TDs, 3,500 yards, 85 passer rating). It's certainly not a bad place to be, but Brady--and this team--just aren't what they were in 2007, to ESPN's utter disbelief. Its offense is no longer as explosive (though Randy Moss definitely still has it) and its defense is nothing special. Denver, meanwhile, has a defense I'm slowly coming around on (Elvis Dumerville sips pina coladas on a tropical island with me in my dreams) and the best offensive line in the league. They win ugly (thanks Kyle Orton!), but they do win.

My prediction: Denver, 14-13.

That's all for now. Can I get any feedback from you guys on the length of the predictions? I can do longer for each, shorter for each, more predictions, etc.