- First, I'd like to apologize for the long layoff. I realize that consistency is extremely important to keeping a blog running, and so I'll try to be that. Yeah.
- Second, there were a ton of html issues with that last post, so that I couldn't tag it or change the title, date, or font. Not sure why.
- Third, you're welcome.
OREGON at Washington: I wish I could call a Lee Corso upset special on this game, but Oregon's defense is an underrated unit and Washington's defense is still pretty abysmal. Jeremiah Masoli is a gametime decision for the Ducks and Jake Locker is a Baby Tebow, but would you bet against Oregon's offense at full stride? I'll be rooting for the Huskies, but I just doubt that they can keep up.
My prediction: Oregon wins it less handily than it expects, 31-20.
Tennessee at ALABAMA: When I think about it, I really have wasted quite a few hours of my life watching Jonathan Crompton do his best imitation of a quarterback. That said, he did light up Georgia's defense (not that that means as much as it used to) and has an excellent, reliable running back in Montario Hardesty. Meanwhile, Tennessee's defense is stout across the board, and I still believe that they have the best player in the country in Eric Berry.
Bama, on the other hand, has stumbled a little bit offensively in recent weeks, as McElroy has revealed himself to be more the variety of quarterback I expected him to be at first--a dyed-in-the-wool Alabama game manager without enough experience to consistently protect the ball, let alone make plays. Mark Ingram and his lead blocker Mike Johnson are on extraordinarily hot streaks, however, and the former is very much deserving of his Heisman hype. The defense, meanwhile, is unimpeachable, even with Arenas out with an injury.
I expect Bama to do what they always do, which is grind out a meager halftime lead and then, through a combination of midgame adjustments and a thorough grinding down of their opponent's will, extend the lead to something respectable. I don't buy Tennessee's offense yet, and their propensity for three-and-outs is going to keep their defense on the field against a power offense that will only keep wearing them down. We saw this same scenario play out against Va. Tech, another team with a good defense and an occasionally competent offense. You know those occasions where that type of offense is competent? They're not the same occasions where you play a defense's like Bama's.
That being said, if Bama comes out throwing and decides to challenge Berry (something Auburn wisely avoided in their win), or, worse yet, falls behind and has to play catch-up, they could easily lose. Bama's blown a few key defensive assignments this year and their aggression has made them pay for it; should Hardesty reel off a few big runs, or Crompton get the play-action working, Bama's offense could be put in a real tight spot.
My prediction: The more likely scenario happens and Bama doesn't suffer the upset, winning 26-10.
Auburn at LSU: One of the reasons I was so long in posting was that I took a trip down to Auburn, and ended up going to the Kentucky game. Auburn's offense looked discombobulated to say the least, and Overachieving Chris Todd has fully regressed back to the Real Chris Todd. They couldn't throw the ball even though Kentucky's best defender, Trevard Lindley, was sidelined with an injury. LSU's defense is a proven commodity by now, and will cause some real problems for Auburn's offense if they get caught in any 3rd-and-longs; Kentucky never blitzed Auburn, and Todd still looked confused out there.
LSU's offense is nothing special, and if I were still coming off of the Florida game instead of a bye week, I might be little more pessimistic. However, Auburn's defense, while occasionally showing flashes of competence, has really struggled to handle elusive runners. Michael Smith got them first in the Arkansas game (as I predicted) and Randall Cobb got them again in dramatic fashion in the Kentucky game. This week, it could be any number of LSU receivers, from Terrance Toliver to Trindon Holliday to Russell Shepard. LSU's offense will probably still sputter like it has before, but I'm counting on a few big plays.
My prediction: This being a night game in Baton Rouge, I say LSU wins 30-13.
IOWA at Michigan St.: This is a chic trap game pick for lots of pundits, but I don't buy it. Michigan State may have a promising passing offense, but Iowa's secondary is where passers go to die. Meanwhile the Michigan State pass defense isn't looking so hot, and Ricky Stanzi is the Manzi when teams play him soft. Iowa's got a really tough history in East Lansing, but the matchups appear to favor them.
My prediction: Iowa wins it the only way they can, 24-20.
Two NFL predictions:
MINNESOTA at Pittsburgh: Another chic pick to end Minnesota's winning streak, Pittsburgh has been dealing with a lot more problems than people care to mention. Their defense, first and foremost, has not been living up to the LeBeau gold standard with Polamalu out, and sustained a possibly fatal loss in the season-ending injury to Aaron Smith, their all-world defensive end. There's also always been a point in the last ten years that when the Steelers are ahead in a game, their defense will never fail them; as we saw in the Cincinnati game and nearly saw again against San Diego, the Steelers can't rely on that. Their offense has been prolific in yardage, but that's been accomplished against some bad teams (Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland), and it's still subject to turnovers. They won't be able to run at all against Minnesota's monster d-line, and will have to rely solely on Roethlisberger's ability to create plays--an ability I think will be highly limited by Jared Allen coming off the edge and the Williams tackles keeping Ben from stepping up in the pocket.
Minnesota's offense, meanwhile, has been extremely efficient thus far, and Adrian Peterson tends to run very well against blitzing 3-4 fronts. If Polamalu's hampered at all, Peterson might not get caught on his cutbacks. Favre's not necessarily to be trusted, but he'll be able to rely on the play-action and won't be asked to win the game on his own. However, can't you just see him tallying another one of those sickening comebacks against the Steelers' not-killer-instinct-having defense this weekend?
My prediction: Minnesota keeps the streak alive, 21-10.
Philadelphia at WASHINGTON: The Disappointment Bowl is something I'll be tuning in to, mainly to see one of my all-time favorites, LaRon Landry, in action. Both teams have underachieved on the season, though it looks like Washington is more fully in Defcon Five panic mode (and this is compared to a team that just dropped one to the Raiders). Philly's defense has had serious trouble dealing with the loss of Stewart Bradley, and for the first time in ages they just don't cover tight ends or running backs very well. Since Washington's only weapons are its Pro Bowl tight end Chris Cooley and its former Pro Bowl running back Clinton Portis, I've got to think that, even with a new guy calling plays, they can have some success just going back to both those contributors inside.
Washington's defense has been disappointing too, but I have a deep and abiding trust in their pass defense, however ill-advised. Since Philly has made the bold decision to never give any of its backs double-digit carries, I think they'll play to Washington's strengths trying to force the deep ball. If they target any member of Washington's starting secondary for too long, they'll end up with a turnover. Considering how poorly both offenses are faring right now, that could be the difference.
My prediction: Washington wins it 13-10.
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