Friday, October 9, 2009

I think you're more than a terrified witness, behind the arbitrary line.

Football prediction party, beginning now:

ALABAMA at Ole Miss: Bama is, whether I like it or not, probably playing the soundest football in the country right now, and clearly has the best resume (garnered, however, on favorable matchups). Ole Miss' ballsy defense (an old-school man-blitz scheme) should keep Bama's inside power runs to a minimum and force McElroy to win a few battles himself. The problem is, he's shown himself to be capable of doing just that to teams who have played him that way. As for Ole Miss' offense, flip a coin. It's highly unlikely that Snead suddenly recovers his talents against Bama's D, but he's the sort of guy who either throws 4 picks or 4 tds in a game (gunslinger!), so don't count him out yet. Houston Nutt is also always good for an upset for every two staggering losses to underdogs.

My prediction: Luck is just fine, but a Process is better; Bama finally tears the heart out of Ole Miss' season, 35-10.

Auburn at ARKANSAS: The Vampire Jetgate Bowl is a lot harder for me to predict. Auburn's defense really is woefully bad, and will catch up to them sometime, I just don't know if that sometime is today. Arkansas' defense is also really bad, but I think that if their offense can stay on the field and chew up clock (Petrino's M.O. against spread offenses) it may not matter. Michael Smith is also the type of back (elusive, prone to breaking arm-tackles and beating safeties) who can cause a lot of problems for Auburn, assuming (and this is a fair assumption) that Mallett is having a good day throwing.

My prediction: If Auburn can run consistently, they'll win today, because it takes pressure off of Todd and also extends drives, helping their defense out. I think Arkansas' defense will take the run away from Auburn, though, and that Auburn's lack of a deep threat at wideout and a defense will finally cost them. Arkansas takes it, in a 31-28 type game.

FLORIDA at LSU: This matchup last year was one of the most miserable experiences of my relatively short career as a college football fan. LSU was on the verge of forcing a three-and-out from the best team in the country on its first drive, when Curtis Taylor, our free safety, batted the ball up (and seemingly away)...into Percy Harvin's waiting hands, who ran it in for a 70-yard touchdown. It set the tone for the rest of the game, which was a shadraching of epic proportions.

I think this year will be a distinctively different (but no less agonizing) type of loss. LSU's defense is improved to say the least, and has individual stars (particularly in the secondary) to rival Florida's. Our pass rush is fairly pedestrian, but our secondary is good enough to make it irrelevant. For the first time since I've been watching LSU, our linebackers are playing disciplined ball, so a lot of the option looks Florida uses will probably get shut down (look for Kelvin Sheppard and Perry Riley, LSU's outside guys, to both have big games on the perimeter).

This is all a moot point, however, if LSU can't score, and you better believe that they won't score against Florida's defense. You can basically only beat them by messing with their safeties on a good play-action fake, and since the line won't be able to run and since Jordan Jefferson is allergic to throwing the deep ball, we won't be doing much of that. There's nothing in the past 4 games for either team to suggest that LSU will be able to run (thanks Brandon Spikes) or throw its patented short-outs to its receivers (thanks Janoris Jenkins and Joe Haden), and with Jefferson at the helm that really is our offense. I love our receivers, but they can only make so many plays on their own.

My prediction: Death by a thousand cuts for LSU, losing about 20-10 to the gators.

I'd talk about Iowa-Michigan (hint: Pat Angerer gets Angererier) or Oregon-UCLA, but most of the games today pick themselves.

A smattering of NFL predictions:

Atlanta at SAN FRANCISCO: Atlanta has shown very little of last year's relationship between Matt Ryan and Roddy White, and if it's still ineffective this game (pleasepleaseplease) then Atlanta will lose. Patrick Willis will have another monster game, and could feasibly take both Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner out of the game covering the middle.

My prediction: San Fran, in a 17-7 patented Shaun Hill win.

INDY at Tennessee: How does 0-5 sound, bitches? Manning and the Indy defensive line are on a crazy-hot streak and the Titans have no offense (sorry Chris Johnson) and no secondary, so I think this game calls itself. In all likelihood, unless the Titans suddenly become last year's Titans, it won't even be close.

My prediction: Indy, 28-10.

New England at DENVER: Tom Brady has regressed to his old, pre-2007 self, which is the real Tom Brady (25 TDs, 3,500 yards, 85 passer rating). It's certainly not a bad place to be, but Brady--and this team--just aren't what they were in 2007, to ESPN's utter disbelief. Its offense is no longer as explosive (though Randy Moss definitely still has it) and its defense is nothing special. Denver, meanwhile, has a defense I'm slowly coming around on (Elvis Dumerville sips pina coladas on a tropical island with me in my dreams) and the best offensive line in the league. They win ugly (thanks Kyle Orton!), but they do win.

My prediction: Denver, 14-13.

That's all for now. Can I get any feedback from you guys on the length of the predictions? I can do longer for each, shorter for each, more predictions, etc.

1 comment:

  1. You were pretty straight on with these. The way you did the highlighted games from pro and college was good. Length and everything was good. Keep it up! It looked like you gave the SEC offenses a touchdown too much (credit wise) or the defense too little.

    ReplyDelete